This is the 142nd newsletter that the ASA Institute for Risk and Innovation has published since 2009, each containing a column that I have written on the Sunday morning preceding publication. In its early years, ASA covered most dimensions of operational risk through a lens that analyzed events from the perspectives of people, process, systems, and external events.
Over 17 years, it has focused on public policy as well as risk analysis, often going beyond textbook definitions to understand persons or forces driving change or being ignored. In the past decade that means I have spent more time on a single person than on any one issue under his command. Especially as President Trump has managed to surround himself with a uniformly undistinguished cast of cabinet members, he has in his current term been able to deploy the Heritage Foundation’s “Presidential Transition Project 2025,” designed to dismantle or eliminate key elements of the three branches of government.
As we approach the midterm elections this November, the aim is to turn out the vote and use gains in the Congress to stop momentum that the administration has garnered through compliant legislative and judicial branches.
Even without the Project 2025 playbook, the outsized power that President Trump has accumulated through Congressional approval and Supreme Court decisions is both frightening and unparalleled. The high court’s recent ruling on birthright citizenship is a relief to many of us, while its ruling on executive authority to fire what had previously been oversight agencies like the Federal Reserve or the Transportation Safety Board that operated independently from the president is yet another brick laid in place to attest to the power of the executive branch over the other two branches.
This past month has been hard. To even his most devoted supporters, it now seems clear that Trump cannot easily finish the war he started with Iran, though billions have been spent on decimation. Negotiators for each side seem unable to move forward, no matter how often Trump assures us a deal is close. Positions have hardened, and Iranian funeral crowds bear “Kill Trump” signs. We have just read of the latest NATO meeting in which Trump berated NATO partners while opening the door to Turkey on the military supply side. His confidence in Putin and Xi seems as strong as ever, as both European and Canadian governments discuss how to proceed without America.
One would think there is more than enough work to do in this country and abroad, without taking time to redecorate much of Washington D.C. in the gaudiest of fashions. All the rules that the government has in place for vendor management have been overlooked, and there is hardly enough time for judicial review of unannounced projects he initiates. Such expenses continue to mount, and the “private donations” well seems insufficient or under-utilized.
A single example of the Reflecting Pool on the Mall shows just how out of balance matters are; and Trump’s own financial report shows how heavily he has profited from deals he’s made for the government in areas like cryptocurrency. He’s begun to show us every day just how old, tired and often confused he is. The prospect of Vice President Vance stepping into that role is lurking just out of range still, while it’s clear that Vance would not be Trump’s choice to replace him except for the Constitutional mandate that he do so.
What will it take for matters to change and how much control do we have over midterm results?
The most troubling push Trump is making is on the elections and elections officials, both now controlled by the states with a federal oversight commission. We must do all we can to have upright and viable candidates on the ballot if we expect to take back the House and Senate. We must double check our assumptions on who is registered to vote, and in fact turn out the vote in November if it is not vote by mail in the states where we live. We must pay more attention to the local issues that divide us, finding accommodations where we can, to leave time and space for conversations with those who still back Trump. Two findings are now clear from early polls: voters do not think Trump is doing a good job and they want us out of Iran.
What is most discouraging is how simple a story it is. It is an unbridled tale of incompetence and greed, where there is no discernible policy or purpose except a pitiful and evidently bottomless desire for display without substance. There is no “art of the deal” – unless it is just stacking the deck to advance self-dealing and grift. Let it be that seeing this for what it is will be a necessary stop to reclaim the very idea of America as a land of the free and the home of the brave.
Originally Published in ASA News & Notes July 13, 2026.
Annie Searle
Searle is an Associate Teaching Professor Emeritus at the University of Washington. She is founder and principal of ASA Risk Consultants, a Seattle-based advisory firm. She spent 10 years at Washington Mutual Bank, most of them as a senior executive. Annie is a member of the CISA 10 Regional Infrastructure Security Group. She was an inaugural inductee in 2011 into the Hall of Fame for the International Network of Women in Homeland Security and Emergency Management. She writes a column monthly for ASA News & Notes and is the author of several books or book chapters. She is also a member of the emeritus board of directors for the Seattle Public Library Foundation.